American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access published online on October 10, 2006
American Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/aje/kwj340
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1 International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. The authors have calculated cumulative risks of lung cancer from a case-control study conducted between 1998 and 2002 involving 2,633 lung cancer cases and 2,884 controls in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Russia. The odds ratios for smoking history were combined with national lung cancer mortality rates to obtain the cumulative risk of lung cancer. The cumulative risk of death from lung cancer by the age of 75 years among current male smokers was 14.6% in Romania and Russia and 15.8% in Poland, similar to levels reported in Western Europe, although higher risks were found in the Czech Republic (19.8%), Hungary (21.9%), and Slovakia (28.2%). Cumulative risks of lung cancer death among never smokers of over 1% were observed in Hungary among both men and women and among men in Poland. The effect of quitting smoking on the lifetime cumulative risk was substantial, with between 67% and 83% of lung cancer risk among men being avoided by quitting before the age of 50 years. This substantial reduction in risk among former smokers confirms that lung cancer mortality in Central Europe over the next three decades will be determined by the extent to which current smokers can successfully quit smoking.
Received July 20, 2005
Accepted May 9, 2006
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
High Cumulative Risk of Lung Cancer Death among Smokers and Nonsmokers in Central and Eastern Europe
Paul Brennan 1 *, Anna Crispo 2, David Zaridze 3, Neonila Szeszenia-Dabrowska 4, Peter Rudnai 5, Jolanta Lissowska 6, Eleonóra Fabiánová 7, Dana Mates 8, Vladimir Bencko 9, Lenka Foretova 10, Vladimir Janout 11, Tony Fletcher 12, and Paolo Boffetta 1
2 International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; Epidemiology Unit, National Cancer Institute, Naples, Italy
3 Institute of Carcinogenesis, Cancer Research Center, Moscow, Russia
4 Department of Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Occupational Medicine, Lodz, Poland
5 National Institute of Environmental Health, Budapest, Hungary
6 Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Cancer Center and M. Sklodowska-Curie Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland
7 Department of Occupational Health, Specialized State Health Institute, Banska Bystrica, Slovakia
8 Institute of Hygiene, Public Health, Health Services, and Management, Bucharest, Romania
9 Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, First Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
10 Department of Cancer Epidemiology, Masaryk Cancer Institute, Brno, Czech Republic
11 Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Palacky University, Olomouc, Czech Republic
12 Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Paul Brennan, E-mail: brennan{at}iarc.fr
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