American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access published online on May 17, 2006
American Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/aje/kwj168
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1 Medical Statistics Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, United Kingdom; Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. The authors present the Minnesota Heart Failure Criteria (MHFC), derived using latent class analysis from widely available items in the Framingham Criteria. The authors used 1995 and 2000 data on hospitalized Minnesota Heart Survey subjects discharged after myocardial infarction or heart failure (N = 7,379). Selected Framingham Criteria variables (dyspnea, pulmonary rales, cardiomegaly, interstitial or pulmonary edema on chest radiograph, S3 heart sound, tachycardia) plus left ventricular ejection fraction were used. The discriminatory power of the MHFC was evaluated using age- and sex-adjusted 2-year mortality. A five-class latent class analysis model was collapsed into cases and noncases. Mortality estimates discriminated noncases (18%) from cases (43%) (p < 0.001). The MHFC performed better than previous truncated criteria (Framingham Criteria: 26% noncases, 43% cases; Duke Criteria: 29%, 40%; Killip Score: 31%, 44%; Boston Score: 28%, 45%). In a subset of patients admitted for heart failure (n = 5,128), the MHFC identified all but 2% (116/4,746) of cases found with a nearly full version of the Framingham Criteria. In terms of prognostic value, the MHFC are as precise as or more precise than several previous sets of truncated criteria. They closely approximate a nearly full version of the Framingham Criteria but require many fewer variables and can facilitate epidemiologic case-finding for heart failure.
Received August 11, 2004
Accepted January 25, 2006
PRACTICE OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
Prognostic Value of a Novel Classification Scheme for Heart Failure: The Minnesota Heart Failure Criteria
Joseph Kim 1 *,
David R. Jacobs Jr. 2,
Russell V. Luepker 3,
Eyal Shahar 3,
Karen L. Margolis 4,
and
Mark P. Becker 5
2 Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN; Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
3 Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
4 Berman Center for Outcomes and Clinical Research, Minneapolis, MN
5 Office of the Provost, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC
Joseph Kim, E-mail: joseph.kim{at}lshtm.ac.uk
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