American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access published online on January 18, 2006
American Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/aje/kwj077
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. The authors estimated plausible ranges of the probability of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission per coital act among newly forming couples by using stochastic computer simulation. Comparative empirical data were obtained in 1996-2001 from a cohort study of female university students in Montreal, Canada. Female prevalence and frequency of sexual intercourse and condom use were set equal to those in the cohort. Simulations included 240 combinations of male prevalence, the relative risk for protected versus unprotected sex, and per-act transmission probabilities. Those that produced expected HPV incidence within the 95% confidence interval observed in the cohort were selected. The observed 6-month cumulative incidence following acquisition of a new partner was 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 11.4, 23.0). Expected incidences consistent with those from cohort findings occurred in 54/240 simulations. The range of per-act transmission probabilities was 5-100% (median, 40%). Male HPV prevalence was the same as or greater than that for women in all consistent simulations. Varying condom effectiveness did not produce better-fitting data. This simulation suggests that HPV transmissibility is several-fold higher than that for other viral sexually transmitted infections such as human immunodeficiency virus or herpes simplex virus 2. With high transmissibility, any potential protective effect of condoms would disappear over multiple intercourse acts, underlining the need for an effective HPV vaccine.
Received July 26, 2005
Accepted October 26, 2005
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Modeling the Sexual Transmissibility of Human Papillomavirus Infection using Stochastic Computer Simulation and Empirical Data from a Cohort Study of Young Women in Montreal, Canada
Ann N. Burchell 1,
Harriet Richardson 2,
Salaheddin M. Mahmud 3,
Helen Trottier 4,
Pierre P. Tellier 5,
James Hanley 6,
François Coutlée 7,
and
Eduardo L. Franco 1 *
2 Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Division of Cancer Care and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
3 Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Department of Community Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
4 Department of Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
5 Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
6 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
7 Département de Microbiologie, Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Eduardo L. Franco, E-mail: eduardo.franco{at}mcgill.ca
Abstract 
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  B. Dondog, G. M. Clifford, S. Vaccarella, T. Waterboer, D. Unurjargal, D. Avirmed, S. Enkhtuya, F. Kommoss, N. Wentzensen, P. J.F. Snijders, et al. Human Papillomavirus Infection in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A Population-Based Study Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2008; 17(7): 1731 - 1738. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. R. Giuliano and D. Salmon The Case for a Gender-Neutral (Universal) Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Policy in the United States: Point Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., April 1, 2008; 17(4): 805 - 808. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 E. L. Franco MPH DrPH, A. de Pokomandy MD, A. R. Spence MSc, A. N. Burchell MSc, H. Trottier PhD, M.-H. Mayrand MD MSc, and S. Lau MD Vaccination against human papillomavirus Can. Med. Assoc. J., December 4, 2007; 177(12): 1524 - 1525. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 E. J. Dasbach, E. H. Elbasha, and R. P. Insinga Mathematical Models for Predicting the Epidemiologic and Economic Impact of Vaccination against Human Papillomavirus Infection and Disease Epidemiol. Rev., August 1, 2006; 28(1): 88 - 100. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|