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American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access published online on August 24, 2005
American Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/aje/kwi263
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American Journal of Epidemiology Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved
Received December 21, 2004
Accepted April 29, 2005

Article

Prior Information in Behavioral Capture-Recapture Methods: Demographic Influences on Drug Injectors' Propensity to be Listed in Data Sources and Their Drug-related Mortality

Ruth King 1*, Sheila M. Bird 2, Steve P. Brooks 3, Sharon J. Hutchinson 4, and Gordon Hay 5

1 Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, United Kingdom
2 Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
3 Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
4 Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Public Health and Health Policy Section, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
5 Centre for Drug Misuse Research, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Ruth King, E-mail: sheila.bird{at}mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk


  Abstract

The authors present findings from a Bayesian analysis of Scotland's four primary capture-recapture data sources for 2000 that was carried out to estimate numbers of current injecting drug users by region (Greater Glasgow vs. elsewhere in Scotland), sex (male vs. female), and age group (15-34 years vs. ≥35 years). A secondary goal of the analysis was to obtain Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the demographic influences on Scotland's drug-related death rate per 100 current injectors. Incorporation of informative priors altered the models with highest posterior probability. Expert opinion on how demography influenced Scottish drug injectors' propensity to be listed in different data sources was taken into account, along with external information about European injectors' drug-related death rates and male:female ratios. Higher drug-related mortality was confirmed in older drug injectors and those outside of Greater Glasgow. Female injectors' lower drug-related death rate was not sustained beyond 34 years of age. The authors recommend that demographic influences be accommodated in behavioral capture-recapture estimation, especially when it is a prelude to secondary analysis, such as the analysis of drug-related death rates presented here.

Keywords: Bayes theorem; data collection; epidemiologic methods; models, statistical; mortality; prevalence; substance abuse, intravenous.
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[Abstract] [PDF]


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