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American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on November 6, 2007
American Journal of Epidemiology 2008 167(3):305-312; doi:10.1093/aje/kwm301
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American Journal of Epidemiology © The Author 2007. Published by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.

ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS

A Cohort Study of Thyroid Cancer and Other Thyroid Diseases after the Chornobyl Accident: Dose-Response Analysis of Thyroid Follicular Adenomas Detected during First Screening in Ukraine (1998–2000)

Lydia B. Zablotska1,*, Tetyana I. Bogdanova2, Elaine Ron3, Ovsiy V. Epstein {dagger}, Jacob Robbins4, Illya A. Likhtarev5, Maureen Hatch3, Valentyn V. Markov2, Andre C. Bouville3, Valery A. Olijnyk2, Robert J. McConnell6, Victor M. Shpak2, Alina Brenner3, Galina N. Terekhova2, Ellen Greenebaum7, Valery P. Tereshchenko2, Daniel J. Fink7, Aaron B. Brill8, Galina A. Zamotayeva2, Ihor J. Masnyk3, Geoffrey R. Howe {dagger} and Mykola D. Tronko2

1 Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY
2 Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Kyiv, Ukraine
3 Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD
4 Genetics and Biochemistry Branch, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Bethesda, MD
5 Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine
6 Department of Medicine, The Thyroid Clinic, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY
7 Department of Pathology, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, NY
8 Department of Radiation and Radiological Sciences, School of Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN

* Correspondence to Dr. Lydia B. Zablotska, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, Suite 1103, New York, NY 10032 (e-mail: lbz7{at}columbia.edu).

Received for publication May 17, 2007. Accepted for publication September 19, 2007.

The Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident in 1986 exposed many individuals to radioactive iodines, chiefly 131I, the effects of which on benign thyroid diseases are largely unknown. To investigate the risk of follicular adenoma in relation to radiation dose after Chornobyl, the authors analyzed the baseline data from a prospective screening cohort study of those exposed as children or adolescents. A stratified random sample was selected from all individuals who were younger than 18 years, had thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, and resided in the three heavily contaminated areas in Ukraine. This analysis is based on the 23 cases diagnosed in 12,504 subjects for whom personal history of thyroid diseases was known. The dose-response relation was linear with an excess relative risk of 2.07 per gray (95% confidence interval: 0.28, 10.31). The risk was significantly higher in women compared with men, with no clear modifying effects of age at exposure. In conclusion, persons exposed to radioactive iodines as children and adolescents have an increased risk of follicular adenoma, though it is smaller than the risk of thyroid cancer in the same cohort. Compared with results from other studies, this estimate is somewhat smaller, but confidence intervals overlap, suggesting compatibility.

adenoma; Chernobyl nuclear accident; dose-response relationship, radiation; iodine; thyroid neoplasms

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval

{dagger} Deceased.


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