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American Journal of Epidemiology 2005 161(12):1151-1158; doi:10.1093/aje/kwi149
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American Journal of Epidemiology Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved

ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Analysis of Worldwide Earthquake Mortality using Multivariate Demographic and Seismic Data

E. Gutiérrez1, F. Taucer1, T. De Groeve2, D. H. A. Al-Khudhairy2 and J. M. Zaldivar3

1 European Laboratory for Structural Assessment Unit, Joint Research Centre–Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, Italy
2 External Security Unit, Joint Research Centre–Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra, Italy
3 Inland Marine Waters Unit, Joint Research Centre–Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Commission of the European Communities, Ispra, Italy

Reprint requests to Eugenio G. Gutiérrez, Joint Research Centre–Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, European Laboratory for Structural Assessment, Via E. Fermi, 1, TP 480 Ispra 21020 (VA), Italy (e-mail: eugenio.gutierrez{at}jrc.it).

In this paper, mortality in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake is studied on a worldwide scale using multivariate analysis. A statistical method is presented that analyzes reported earthquake fatalities as a function of a heterogeneous set of parameters selected on the basis of their presumed influence on earthquake mortality. The ensemble was compiled from demographic, seismic, and reported fatality data culled from available records of past earthquakes organized in a geographic information system. The authors consider the statistical relation between earthquake mortality and the available data ensemble, analyze the validity of the results in view of the parametric uncertainties, and propose a multivariate mortality analysis prediction method. The analysis reveals that, although the highest mortality rates are expected in poorly developed rural areas, high fatality counts can result from a wide range of mortality ratios that depend on the effective population size.

demography; mortality; multivariate analysis; natural disasters

Abbreviations: GDP, gross domestic product; USGS, US Geological Survey


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