American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 155, No. 1 : 80-87
Copyright © 2002 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS |
Temperature and Mortality in 11 Cities of the Eastern United States
1 Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
2 Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
3 Department of Environmental Health Science, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
Episodes of extremely hot or cold temperatures are associated with increased mortality. Time-series analyses show an association between temperature and mortality across a range of less extreme temperatures. In this paper, the authors describe the temperature-mortality association for 11 large eastern US cities in 1973–1994 by estimating the relative risks of mortality using log-linear regression analysis for time-series data and by exploring city characteristics associated with variations in this temperature-mortality relation. Current and recent days' temperatures were the weather components most strongly predictive of mortality, and mortality risk generally decreased as temperature increased from the coldest days to a certain threshold temperature, which varied by latitude, above which mortality risk increased as temperature increased. The authors also found a strong association of the temperature-mortality relation with latitude, with a greater effect of colder temperatures on mortality risk in more-southern cities and of warmer temperatures in more-northern cities. The percentage of households with air conditioners in the south and heaters in the north, which serve as indicators of socioeconomic status of the city population, also predicted weather-related mortality. The model developed in this analysis is potentially useful for projecting the consequences of climate-change scenarios and offering insights into susceptibility to the adverse effects of weather.
aging; cause of death; climate; heat; mortality; weather
Abbreviations: AIC, Akaike's Information Criterion; GAM, generalized additive model; MMT, minimum mortality temperature
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  K Bhaskaran, S Hajat, A Haines, E Herrett, P Wilkinson, and L Smeeth Effects of ambient temperature on the incidence of myocardial infarction Heart, November 1, 2009; 95(21): 1760 - 1769. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. P Langrish, N. L Mills, and D. E Newby Heat and haze: a forecast for myocardial infarction? Heart, November 1, 2009; 95(21): 1721 - 1722. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 V M Muggeo and S Hajat Modelling the non-linear multiple-lag effects of ambient temperature on mortality in Santiago and Palermo: a constrained segmented distributed lag approach Occup. Environ. Med., September 1, 2009; 66(9): 584 - 591. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 K. Wolf, A. Schneider, S. Breitner, S. von Klot, C. Meisinger, J. Cyrys, H. Hymer, H. -E. Wichmann, A. Peters, and for the Cooperative Health Research in the Region Air Temperature and the Occurrence of Myocardial Infarction in Augsburg, Germany Circulation, September 1, 2009; 120(9): 735 - 742. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A Smargiassi, M S Goldberg, C Plante, M Fournier, Y Baudouin, and T Kosatsky Variation of daily warm season mortality as a function of micro-urban heat islands J Epidemiol Community Health, August 1, 2009; 63(8): 659 - 664. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 M. Hashizume, Y. Wagatsuma, T. Hayashi, S. K Saha, K. Streatfield, and M. Yunus The effect of temperature on mortality in rural Bangladesh--a population-based time-series study Int. J. Epidemiol., January 30, 2009; (2009) dyn376v1. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A. Analitis, K. Katsouyanni, A. Biggeri, M. Baccini, B. Forsberg, L. Bisanti, U. Kirchmayer, F. Ballester, E. Cadum, P. G. Goodman, et al. Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results From 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project Am. J. Epidemiol., December 15, 2008; 168(12): 1397 - 1408. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 V. M. R. Muggeo Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points Biostat., October 1, 2008; 9(4): 613 - 620. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. J McMichael, P. Wilkinson, R S. Kovats, S. Pattenden, S. Hajat, B. Armstrong, N. Vajanapoom, E. M Niciu, H. Mahomed, C. Kingkeow, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project Int. J. Epidemiol., October 1, 2008; 37(5): 1121 - 1131. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. L Bell, M. S O'Neill, N. Ranjit, V. H Borja-Aburto, L. A Cifuentes, and N. C Gouveia Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico Int. J. Epidemiol., August 1, 2008; 37(4): 796 - 804. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 C. Linares and J. Diaz Impact of high temperatures on hospital admissions: comparative analysis with previous studies about mortality (Madrid) Eur J Public Health, June 1, 2008; 18(3): 317 - 322. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 R. D. Peng, H. H. Chang, M. L. Bell, A. McDermott, S. L. Zeger, J. M. Samet, and F. Dominici Coarse Particulate Matter Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases Among Medicare Patients JAMA, May 14, 2008; 299(18): 2172 - 2179. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
C Ren, G M Williams, L Morawska, K Mengersen, and S Tong Ozone modifies associations between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data Occup. Environ. Med., April 1, 2008; 65(4): 255 - 260. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Carder, R McNamee, I Beverland, R Elton, M Van Tongeren, G R Cohen, J Boyd, W MacNee, and R M Agius Interacting effects of particulate pollution and cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland Occup. Environ. Med., March 1, 2008; 65(3): 197 - 204. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 K. Knowlton, B. Lynn, R. A. Goldberg, C. Rosenzweig, C. Hogrefe, J. K. Rosenthal, and P. L. Kinney Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region Am J Public Health, November 1, 2007; 97(11): 2028 - 2034. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 L. A. PAGE, S. HAJAT, and R. S. KOVATS Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales The British Journal of Psychiatry, August 1, 2007; 191(2): 106 - 112. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Hajat, R S Kovats, and K Lachowycz Heat-related and cold-related deaths in England and Wales: who is at risk? Occup. Environ. Med., February 1, 2007; 64(2): 93 - 100. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Vandentorren, P. Bretin, A Zeghnoun, L. Mandereau-Bruno, A. Croisier, C. Cochet, J. Riberon, I. Siberan, B. Declercq, and M. Ledrans August 2003 Heat Wave in France: Risk Factors for Death of Elderly People Living at Home Eur J Public Health, December 1, 2006; 16(6): 583 - 591. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
P. Michelozzi, M. De Sario, G. Accetta, F. de'Donato, U. Kirchmayer, M. D'Ovidio, C. A Perucci, and on behalf of the HHWWS Collaborative Group Temperature and summer mortality: geographical and temporal variations in four Italian cities J Epidemiol Community Health, May 1, 2006; 60(5): 417 - 423. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. Zeka, A. Zanobetti, and J. Schwartz Individual-Level Modifiers of the Effects of Particulate Matter on Daily Mortality Am. J. Epidemiol., May 1, 2006; 163(9): 849 - 859. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
F. Dominici, R. D. Peng, M. L. Bell, L. Pham, A. McDermott, S. L. Zeger, and J. M. Samet Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Hospital Admission for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases JAMA, March 8, 2006; 295(10): 1127 - 1134. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Zauli Sajani, F. Scotto, and P. Lauriola A direct approach to control short term population dynamics in time series studies J Epidemiol Community Health, November 1, 2005; 59(11): 985 - 986. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M Carder, R McNamee, I Beverland, R Elton, G R Cohen, J Boyd, and R M Agius The lagged effect of cold temperature and wind chill on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland Occup. Environ. Med., October 1, 2005; 62(10): 702 - 710. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A Zeka, A Zanobetti, and J Schwartz Short term effects of particulate matter on cause specific mortality: effects of lags and modification by city characteristics Occup. Environ. Med., October 1, 2005; 62(10): 718 - 725. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 F. Dominici, J. I. Levy, and T. A. Louis Methodological Challenges and Contributions in Disaster Epidemiology Epidemiol. Rev., July 1, 2005; 27(1): 9 - 12. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
L. J. Welty and S. L. Zeger Are the Acute Effects of Particulate Matter on Mortality in the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study the Result of Inadequate Control for Weather and Season? A Sensitivity Analysis using Flexible Distributed Lag Models Am. J. Epidemiol., July 1, 2005; 162(1): 80 - 88. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. Schwartz How Sensitive Is the Association between Ozone and Daily Deaths to Control for Temperature? Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., March 15, 2005; 171(6): 627 - 631. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J Schwartz The effects of particulate air pollution on daily deaths: a multi-city case crossover analysis Occup. Environ. Med., December 1, 2004; 61(12): 956 - 961. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
E A Eisen, I Agalliu, S W Thurston, B A Coull, and H Checkoway Smoothing in occupational cohort studies: an illustration based on penalised splines Occup. Environ. Med., October 1, 2004; 61(10): 854 - 860. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. Vandentorren, F. Suzan, S. Medina, M. Pascal, A. Maulpoix, J.-C. Cohen, and M. Ledrans Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wave Am J Public Health, September 1, 2004; 94(9): 1518 - 1520. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
F Ballester, P Michelozzi, and C Iniguez Weather, climate, and public health J Epidemiol Community Health, October 1, 2003; 57(10): 759 - 760. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 W. R Keatinge Death in heat waves BMJ, September 6, 2003; 327(7414): 512 - 513. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Pattenden, B Nikiforov, and B G Armstrong Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London J Epidemiol Community Health, August 1, 2003; 57(8): 628 - 633. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
F. C. Curriero, J. M. Samet, and S. L. Zeger RE: "ON THE USE OF GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODELS IN TIME-SERIES STUDIES OF AIR POLLUTION AND HEALTH" AND "TEMPERATURE AND MORTALITY IN 11 CITIES OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES" Am. J. Epidemiol., July 1, 2003; 158(1): 93 - 94. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. S. O'Neill, A. Zanobetti, and J. Schwartz Modifiers of the Temperature and Mortality Association in Seven US Cities Am. J. Epidemiol., June 15, 2003; 157(12): 1074 - 1082. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
N. Gouveia, S. Hajat, and B. Armstrong Socioeconomic differentials in the temperature-mortality relationship in Sao Paulo, Brazil Int. J. Epidemiol., June 1, 2003; 32(3): 390 - 397. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hypothermia Related Deaths--Philadelphia, 2001, and United States, 1999 JAMA, March 12, 2003; 289(10): 1236 - 1238. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. Basu and J. M. Samet Relation between Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality: A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence Epidemiol. Rev., December 1, 2002; 24(2): 190 - 202. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. A Patz and R S. Kovats Hotspots in climate change and human health BMJ, November 9, 2002; 325(7372): 1094 - 1098. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
S Hajat, R S Kovats, R W Atkinson, and A Haines Impact of hot temperatures on death in London: a time series approach J Epidemiol Community Health, May 1, 2002; 56(5): 367 - 372. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
J. A. Patz and M. Khaliq Global Climate Change and Health: Challenges for Future Practitioners JAMA, May 1, 2002; 287(17): 2283 - 2284. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|