American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 148, No. 8: 775-785
Copyright © 1998 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
other |
Asymptomatic Incidence and Duration of Prostate Cancer
1Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Seattle, WA
2National Cancer Institute Bethesda, MD
Reprint requests to Dr. Ruth Etzioni, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Program in Biostatistics, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, MPE-665, P. O. Box 19024, Seattle, WA 98109-1024.
Prostate cancer is known as a disease with an extremely high prevalence relative to its clinical incidence in the population. The combination of preclinical incidence and duration that could yield this phenomenon is of tremendous interest to researchers trying to understand the natural history of the disease and to develop efficient screening strategies. In this article, the authors present estimates of the age-specific asymptomatic incidence and average preclinical duration of prostate cancer. The methodological approach is to first estimate the age-specific incidence of new (stage Al) prostate cancers using preclinical prevalence data from autopsy studies performed between 1941 and 1964 and clinical incidence data for the years 1960–1986 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. Then, the preclinical prevalence estimates are divided by the derived preclinical incidence estimates to yield estimates of the average duration of asymptomatic disease. The estimated mean duration among white men is between 11 and 12 years and appears to be approximately 1 year shorter for blacks than for whites. Comparison of the lifetime risks of preclinical and clinical disease suggests that approximately 75% of prostate cancers will never become diagnosed if clinical incidence remains at levels observed in 1984–1986, prior to the introduction of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in the population. Am J Epidemiol 1998; 148: 775–85.
disease progression; natural history; prevalence; prostatic neoplasms; SEER program
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  R. C. Travis, F. L. Crowe, N. E. Allen, P. N. Appleby, A. W. Roddam, A. Tjonneland, A. Olsen, J. Linseisen, R. Kaaks, H. Boeing, et al. Serum Vitamin D and Risk of Prostate Cancer in a Case-Control Analysis Nested Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Am. J. Epidemiol., May 15, 2009; 169(10): 1223 - 1232. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 R. Etzioni, R. Gulati, S. Falcon, and D. F. Penson Impact of PSA Screening on the Incidence of Advanced Stage Prostate Cancer in the United States: A Surveillance Modeling Approach Med Decis Making, June 1, 2008; 28(3): 323 - 331. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 D. A. Brown, C. Stephan, R. L. Ward, M. Law, M. Hunter, A. R. Bauskin, J. Amin, K. Jung, E. P. Diamandis, G. M. Hampton, et al. Measurement of Serum Levels of Macrophage Inhibitory Cytokine 1 Combined with Prostate-Specific Antigen Improves Prostate Cancer Diagnosis Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2006; 12(1): 89 - 96. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 I. M. Thompson, D. P. Ankerst, C. Chi, M. S. Lucia, P. J. Goodman, J. J. Crowley, H. L. Parnes, and C. A. Coltman Jr Operating Characteristics of Prostate-Specific Antigen in Men With an Initial PSA Level of 3.0 ng/mL or Lower JAMA, July 6, 2005; 294(1): 66 - 70. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 E. J Feuer, R. Etzioni, K. A Cronin, and A. Mariotto The use of modeling to understand the impact of screening on US mortality: examples from mammography and PSA testing Statistical Methods in Medical Research, December 1, 2004; 13(6): 421 - 442. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
H.-Y. Huang, A. J. Alberg, E. P. Norkus, S. C. Hoffman, G. W. Comstock, and K. J. Helzlsouer Prospective Study of Antioxidant Micronutrients in the Blood and the Risk of Developing Prostate Cancer Am. J. Epidemiol., February 15, 2003; 157(4): 335 - 344. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 R. Etzioni, D. F. Penson, J. M. Legler, D. di Tommaso, R. Boer, P. H. Gann, and E. J. Feuer Overdiagnosis Due to Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening: Lessons From U.S. Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends J Natl Cancer Inst, July 3, 2002; 94(13): 981 - 990. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. S. Goodwin Language and Medicine: Thinking and Talking About Alzheimer's Disease Gerontologist, June 1, 2002; 42(3): 293 - 296. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. D. Brooks, V. G. Paton, and G. Vidanes Potent Induction of Phase 2 Enzymes in Human Prostate Cells by Sulforaphane Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., September 1, 2001; 10(9): 949 - 954. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. J. Newschaffer, K. Otani, M. K. McDonald, and L. T. Penberthy Causes of Death in Elderly Prostate Cancer Patients and in a Comparison Nonprostate Cancer Cohort J Natl Cancer Inst, April 19, 2000; 92(8): 613 - 621. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. F. Hankey, L. A. Ries, and B. K. Edwards The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program: A National Resource Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., December 1, 1999; 8(12): 1117 - 1121. [Full Text]
|
|