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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 148, No. 1: 78-87
Copyright © 1998 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

Epidemiology of Rodent Bites and Prediction of Rat Infestation in New York City

James E. Childs1,, Sara L. McLafferty2, Ramses Sadek1, Gayle L. Miller1, Ali S. Khan1, E. Randy DuPree3, Ranjan Advani3 and Gregory E. Glass4

1Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases, National Center of Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta, GA
2Department of Geography, Hunter College New York, NY.
3New York City Department of Health New York, NY.
4Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Unioversity School of Public Health Baltimore, MD.

Reprint requests to Dr. James E. Childs, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Mailstop G13, Atlanta, GA 30333.

The authors examined the epidemiology of rodent bites occurring in New York City from 1986 through 1994 to identify factors contributing to increased probability of rodent bite and rat infestation. City blocks on which a rodent bite case had been reported (n=415) and three control blocks per bite block, matched by borough and randomly selected, were compared according to demographic characteristics obtained from US Census data. Environmental variable were defined using a geographic information system to extract distances to areas potentially providing food or refuge for rats, such as parks. Borough-specific models of bite risk were generated by logistic regression using data collected from 1991 to 1994; risk values were then generated for all city blocks. Field surveys for signs of rat infestation conducted on 31 randomly selected blocks indicated a significant association betwen degree of infestation and predicted risk. Spatial analyses comparing neighboring blocks showed that bolcks with bite ccases were significantly clustered. The models based on data from previous years correctly predicted 72 percent of 53 block addresses of rodent bite cases from 1995 as being location of high or intermediate risk. A combination of geographic and edidemiologic analyses could help investigators identify the spatial occurrence of rat infestation over a large area and might help to focus control activities. Am J Epifrmiol 198;148:78–87.

bites and stings; geography; information systems; rats; risk assessment; rodent control; urban health

This paper was prepared under the auspices of the US Government and is therefore not subject to copyright.


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