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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 142, No. 7: 709-713
Copyright © 1995 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health


other

A BRIEF ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTION

The AIDS Epidemic in India: A New Method for Estimating Current Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Incidence Rates

Ron Brookmeyer1, Thomas Quinn2,3, Mary Shepherd2, Sanjay Mehendale4, Jeanette Rodrigues4 and Robert Bollinger2

1Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, The Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD.
2Division of Infectious Diseases, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Baltimore, MD.
3National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Bethesda, MD.
4The National AIDS Research Institute Pune, India.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates in India were estimated using a new method that accounts for follow-up bias. Follow-up bias arises in epidemiologic cohort studies when the incidence rate among individuals who do and do not return for follow-up are different. The new method combines data on the prevalence of p24 antigenemia among all those initially screened together with the longitudinal follow-up data on the subset of patients who returned for follow-up. Using these methods, the current HIV incidence rate among patients attending sexually transmitted disease clinics in Pune, India, was 18.6% per year. It was found that follow-up bias can cause significant underestimation in HIV incidence rates, perhaps by as much as 60%. These incidence estimates, together with other HIV seroprevalence studies, suggest the HIV epidemic in India is growing rapidly. Am J Epidemiol 1995;142:709–13.

acquired immunodeficiency syndrome;; bias (epidemiology);; cross-sectional studies;; epidemiologic methods;; HIV;; statistics


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