American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 138, No. 3: 170-181
Copyright © 1993 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
research-article |
Estimating the Population Prevalence of Injection Drug Use and Infection with Human Immunodeficiency Virus among Injection Drug Users in Glasgow, Scotland
1Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit, Ruchill Hospital Glasgow G20 9NB, Scotland, United Kingdom
2Public Health Research Unit, 1 Lilybank Gardens Glasgow G12 8RZ, Scotland, United Kingdom
3Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of St. Andrews St. Andrews KY16 9SS, Scotland, United Kingdom
4School of Social and Administrative Studies, University of Wales Cardiff CF1 3AS, Wales, United Kingdom
5Department of Infection and Tropical Medicine, Ruchill Hospital Glasgow G20 9NB, Scotland, United Kingdom
6Medical Research Council Medical Sociology Unit Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland, United Kingdom
Reprint requests to Dr. Martin Frischer, Communicable Diseases (Scotland) Unit, Ruchill Hospital, Glasgow G20 9NB Scotland, United Kingdom
Although data on the prevalence of injection drug use are an essential prerequisite for estimating the number of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), there have been few attempts to utilize statistical methods of population estimation based on multiple data sources. Data on 3,670 cases (2,866 individuals) were obtained from the HIV test register, drug treatment agencies, police records, and needle and syringe exchanges in Glasgow, Scotland, in 1990. Log-linear analysis was used to model the number of individuals in each of the sources. The model incorporating dependency among the three health care agencies (HIV test, drug treatment, and needle exchange) and independence of the police sample fitted the data well, with a residual 
2 value of 2.9 (6 df). The expected value of the missing cell corresponding to absence from all four samples was 5,628, yielding an overall estimate of 8,494 injectors (95% confidence interval (CI) 7,491–9,721), for a prevalence rate of 1.35% for people aged 15–55 years in Glasgow during 1990. The high ratio of known to unknown injectors (1:2) resulted from the extensive coverage of known injectors and the relatively high level of overlap between the combined health care agency sample and the police sample. While further analysis demonstrated that the probability of appearing in the four samples varied by age and sex, heterogeneity in the population did not affect the choice of model or substantially alter the estimates for the total number of unknown injectors. A concurrent study of a community-wide sample of 503 injectors resulted in an HIV prevalence rate of 1.1% (95% CI 0.4–2.5%). The results of these studies were combined to produce a further estimate of 93 HIV-infected current injectors in Glasgow (95% CI 33–214).
HIV seroprevalence; log-linear models; models; statistical; prevalence; substance abuse; intravenous
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  G. Hay, M. Gannon, J. MacDougall, C. Eastwood, K. Williams, and T. Millar Capture--recapture and anchored prevalence estimation of injecting drug users in England: national and regional estimates Statistical Methods in Medical Research, August 1, 2009; 18(4): 323 - 339. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
R. King, S. M Bird, G. Hay, and S. J Hutchinson Estimating current injectors in Scotland and their drug-related death rate by sex, region and age-group via Bayesian capture--recapture methods Statistical Methods in Medical Research, August 1, 2009; 18(4): 341 - 359. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 M. Bloor Population Estimation without Censuses or Surveys: A Discussion of Mark-recapture Methods Illustrated by Results from Three Studies Sociology, February 1, 2005; 39(1): 121 - 138. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 D. De Angelis, M. Hickman, and S. Yang Estimating Long-term Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of Opiate Use/Injecting Drug Use and the Number of Former Users: Back-Calculation Methods and Opiate Overdose Deaths Am. J. Epidemiol., November 15, 2004; 160(10): 994 - 1004. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 I. Gemmell, T. Millar, and G. Hay Capture-recapture estimates of problem drug use and the use of simulation based confidence intervals in a stratified analysis J Epidemiol Community Health, September 1, 2004; 58(9): 758 - 765. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. Hickman, V. Higgins, V. Hope, M. Bellis, K. Tilling, A. Walker, and J. Henry Injecting drug use in Brighton, Liverpool, and London: best estimates of prevalence and coverage of public health indicators J Epidemiol Community Health, September 1, 2004; 58(9): 766 - 771. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 C. C. MCGUIGAN, G. M. PENRICE, L. GRUER, S. AHMED, D. GOLDBERG, M. BLACK, J. E. SALMON, and J. HOOD Lethal outbreak of infection with Clostridium novyi type A and other spore-forming organisms in Scottish injecting drug users J. Med. Microbiol., November 1, 2002; 51(11): 971 - 977. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 D Thorburn, D Dundas, E A B McCruden, S O Cameron, D J Goldberg, I S Symington, A Kirk, and P R Mills A study of hepatitis C prevalence in healthcare workers in the West of Scotland Gut, January 1, 2001; 48(1): 116 - 120. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 A Morrison and D H Stone Capture-recapture: a useful methodological tool for counting traffic related injuries? Inj. Prev., December 1, 2000; 6(4): 299 - 304. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J. Johnston, S. Cameron, M. Stewart, D. Goldberg, C. Fletcher, W. Smyth, and G. Codere Unlinked anonymous HIV study of hospital patients and general practice attenders in Glasgow, 1991-1997 J. Clin. Pathol., February 1, 2000; 53(2): 117 - 121. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 S. J. HUTCHINSON, S. M. GORE, A. TAYLOR, D. J. GOLDBERG, and M. FRISCHER Extent and contributing factors of drug expenditure of injectors in Glasgow: Multi-site city-wide cross-sectional study The British Journal of Psychiatry, February 1, 2000; 176(2): 166 - 172. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 L. Gruer, P. Wilson, R. Scott, L. Elliott, J. Macleod, K. Harden, E. Forrester, S. Hinshelwood, H. McNulty, and P. Silk General practitioner centred scheme for treatment of opiate dependent drug injectors in Glasgow BMJ, June 14, 1997; 314(7096): 1730 - 1730. [Full Text]
|
|