American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 138, No. 11: 923-936
Copyright © 1993 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
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Simulation Study of Confounder-Selection Strategies
1Division of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota Minneapolis, MN
2Department of Epidemiology, UCLA School of Public Health Los Angeles, CA
Correspondence to Dr. George Maldonado, Division of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, 420 Delaware St. SE, Box 807, Minneapolis, MN 55455
In the absence of prior knowledge about population relations, investigators frequently employ a strategy that uses the data to help them decide whether to adjust for a variable. The authors compared the performance of several such strategies for fitting multiplicative Poisson regression models to cohort data: 1) the "change-in-estimate" strategy, in which a variable is controlled if the adjusted and unadjusted estimates differ by some important amount; 2) the "significance-test-of-the-covariate" strategy, in which a variable is controlled if its coefficient is significantly different from zero at some predetermined significance level; 3) the "significance-test-of-the-difference" strategy, which tests the difference between the adjusted and unadjusted exposure coefficients; 4) the "equiva-lence-test-of-the-difference" strategy, which significance-tests the equivalence of the adjusted and unadjusted exposure coefficients; and 5) a hybrid strategy that takes a weighted average of adjusted and unadjusted estimates. Data were generated from 8,100 population structures at each of several sample sizes. The performance of the different strategies was evaluated by computing bias, mean squared error, and coverage rates of confidence intervals. At least one variation of each strategy that was examined performed acceptably. The change-in-estimate and equivalence-test-of-the-difference strategies performed best when the cut-point for deciding whether crude and adjusted estimates differed by an important amount was set to a low value (10%). The significance test strategies performed best when the alpha level was set to much higher than conventional levels (0.20).
confounding factors (epidemiology); epidemiologic methods; models, statistical; logistic models; regression analysis; relative risk
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E. T. Chang, K. Ekstrom Smedby, S. M. Zhang, H. Hjalgrim, M. Melbye, A. Ost, B. Glimelius, A. Wolk, and H.-O. Adami Dietary Factors and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in Men and Women Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., February 1, 2005; 14(2): 512 - 520. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. B. Carr, K. M. Utzschneider, E. J. Boyko, P. J. Asberry, R. L. Hull, K. Kodama, H. S. Callahan, C. C. Matthys, D. L. Leonetti, R. S. Schwartz, et al. A Reduced-Fat Diet and Aerobic Exercise in Japanese Americans With Impaired Glucose Tolerance Decreases Intra-Abdominal Fat and Improves Insulin Sensitivity but not {beta}-Cell Function Diabetes, February 1, 2005; 54(2): 340 - 347. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. Dole, D. A. Savitz, A. M. Siega-Riz, I. Hertz-Picciotto, M. J. McMahon, and P. Buekens Psychosocial Factors and Preterm Birth Among African American and White Women in Central North Carolina Am J Public Health, August 1, 2004; 94(8): 1358 - 1365. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. Dominici, D. Spiegelman, and S. R. Cole Methodological Contributions to the American Journal of Epidemiology Am. J. Epidemiol., August 1, 2004; 160(3): 197 - 198. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. Kaerlev, L. B. Jacobsen, J. Olsen, and J. P. Bonde Long-term sick leave and its risk factors during pregnancy among Danish hospital employees Scand J Public Health, March 1, 2004; 32(2): 111 - 117. [Abstract] [PDF] |
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M. Siegel, A. B. Albers, D. M. Cheng, L. Biener, and N. A. Rigotti Effect of Local Restaurant Smoking Regulations on Environmental Tobacco Smoke Exposure Among Youths Am J Public Health, February 1, 2004; 94(2): 321 - 325. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. DeStefano, T. K. Bhasin, W. W. Thompson, M. Yeargin-Allsopp, and C. Boyle Age at First Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination in Children With Autism and School-Matched Control Subjects: A Population-Based Study in Metropolitan Atlanta Pediatrics, February 1, 2004; 113(2): 259 - 266. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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