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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 126, No. 1: 50-54
Copyright © 1987 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

A SEROEPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDY OF HEPATITIS A VIRUS INFECTIONS: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TWO INDEPENDENT CROSS-SECTIONAL SURVEYS IN OKINAWA, JAPAN

HIDEYUKI IKEMATSU1,, SEIZABURO KASHIWAGI1, JUN HAYASHI1, HIDEYUKI NOMURA1, WATARU KAJIYAMA1, SHUNICHI TANI2, YASUNORI URAGARI2 and MASASHI GOTO2

1First Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Kyushu University 71 Higashi-ku, Fu-kuoka, 812 Japan
2Shionogi Kaiseki Center, Shionogi Co., LTD. Suita City, Osaka, Japan

Reprint request to Dr. Hideyuki Ikematsu

To investigate the endemic situation of hepatitis A virus infection in the past in Okinawa, Japan, the authors analyzed two sets of cross-sectional data on age-specific prevalence of antibody to hepatitis A virus (anti-HAV) obtained In 1968–1973 and 1980–1981 by fitting a catalytic model. For these two sets of data, the asymptotic level of infectious force of hepatitis A virus, namely {lambda} was estimated as 0.121 and 0.149, the maximum slope of the time-dependent force of hepatitis A infection, namely {alpha}, was 0.566 and 0.529, and the year when the force of hepatitis A infection had decreased to the half of {lambda}, namely ß, was 1966 and 1964, respectively. In the test for the equality of parameters for the two applications, the difference was not significant Furthermore, the fitness of the catalytic model to the data on anti-HAV prevalence was good. The results of the analysis by fitting the catalytic model show that hepatitis A infection had been highly endemic, that is, 136 infections per 1,000 persons per year in the area studied before 1955, and H decreased rapidly during the 1960s. Since 1975, hepatitis A has been a rare disease (infection is almost zero per 1,000 persons per year) In Okinawa, Japan.

antibodies; epklemlotogic methods; hepatitis A virus; prevalence studies


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