American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on May 26, 2006
American Journal of Epidemiology 2006 164(2):143-150; doi:10.1093/aje/kwj166
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Original Contribution |
Lower-than-Expected Prevalence and Severity of Retinopathy in an Incident Cohort followed during the First 414 Years of Type 1 Diabetes
The Wisconsin Diabetes Registry Study
1 Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI
2 Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI
3 Covance, Inc., Madison, WI
4 Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI
Correspondence to Dr. Mari Palta, Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of WisconsinMadison, 610 Walnut Street, Room 689, Madison, WI 53726-2397 (e-mail: mpalta{at}wisc.edu).
Received for publication July 7, 2005. Accepted for publication January 20, 2006.
| ABSTRACT |
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The authors examined the development of diabetic retinopathy in a population-based cohort of persons with incident type 1 diabetes to investigate the possibility of lowered retinopathy prevalence and severity compared with previous US studies. A total of 474 diabetic persons from Wisconsin were followed from diagnosis through 414 years' duration during 19902002. Retinopathy was determined by fundus photography at 4, 7, 9, and 14 years' duration. Risk of developing retinopathy was modeled on demographic and diabetes-care characteristics by means of a generalized linear model using the complementary log-log link for interval-censored data. Prevalence of retinopathy increased with duration of diabetes, from 6% at 4 years to 73% at 14 years, and was highest among adults (
20 years of age). Risk of developing retinopathy increased with increasing duration, worse glycemic control, and age up to 20 years. Indicators of diabetes care were related to retinopathy through their effect on glycemic control. Improvements in diabetes care leading to better glycemic control may have contributed to the much lower prevalence and less severe retinopathy observed than expected on the basis of a previous report from the same region of Wisconsin. The observed decreased prevalence has important implications for persons with type 1 diabetes, since retinopathy is a serious microvascular complication.
diabetes mellitus, type 1; diabetic retinopathy; longitudinal studies; risk factors
Abbreviations: DCCT, Diabetes Control and Complications Trial; WESDR, Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy
| INTRODUCTION |
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Diabetic retinopathy is a leading cause of blindness among US adults (1
Since that time, the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) has shown that intensive diabetes management can prevent or delay complications (5
). Subsequent changes in care may have reduced rates and severity of retinopathy in persons with type 1 diabetes. A recent report from Sweden indicated a lower prevalence of diabetic retinopathy during the first 10 years of diabetes duration (6
). The authors ascribed the decline to improved treatment and achievement of better blood glucose control in the decade following the DCCT findings. Current, post-DCCT reports on retinopathy in type 1 diabetes from population-based US studies have been called for (7).
We examined the prevalence and severity of retinopathy in a population-based cohort followed from diabetes diagnosis through 414 years' duration during the period 19902002. We also investigated possible modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors for developing diabetic retinopathy, such as diabetes self-care practices, glycemic control, and demographic factors, to determine whether factors related to the risk of retinopathy may also have changed during this period.
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Population
The Wisconsin Diabetes Registry Study is a prospective study of the natural history of long-term diabetes complications and their risk factors in children, adolescents, and young adults with type 1 diabetes. Details of case recruitment and ascertainment have been published previously (8
30 years of age and lived within a defined area (28 counties) in central and southern Wisconsin were eligible. People were referred to the study by a physician, nurse, diabetes educator, or family member or by self-report. Hospitals and clinics in the study area were called every 3 months for ascertainment of any missed cases. A total of 733 persons with diabetes were identified (overall case ascertainment rate = 82 percent), of whom 597 enrolled, with fewer adults and non-Whites participating. Follow-up examinations, including fundus photographs, were conducted from August 1990 through June 2002. Among the 597 enrolled participants from the Registry, 474 (79 percent) provided gradable fundus photographs from one or more examinations undergone during 414 years' duration of diabetes. Examinations were offered to continuing participants at 4, 7, 9, and 14 years postonset. Of those entering the cohort, 90 percent, 63 percent, 79 percent, and 23 percent reached 4, 7, 9, and 14 years' duration, respectively, during the study. Among these persons, 80 percent, 73 percent, 64 percent, and 54 percent participated in the respective examinations. Participation in the 7-, 9-, and 14-year examinations was lowered by the ending of grant cycles, leading to not all eligible persons' being contacted. Estimated participation rates excluding such persons were 75 percent, 70 percent, and 62 percent for these examinations. In total, 1,053 observations were included in the initial analysis: 420 persons participated in fundus photography at 4 years, 275 at 7 years, 290 at 9 years, and 68 at 14 years. The institutional review board for the protection of human subjects at the University of WisconsinMadison approved the informed consent process and study methods.
Data and specimen collection
Diabetes management and demographic data.
Data on demographic characteristics, including years of mother's education and parental occupation, were collected by telephone interview with participants or parents (if participants were under 18 years of age) 23 months after diagnosis. An occupation-based socioeconomic score for subjects' parents was assigned using the scheme of Stevens and Cho (9
), where higher scores indicate higher socioeconomic status. The higher of the two levels was used for households with two working parents. Diabetes self-management data, including insulin dose (taken by injection or insulin pump) in units per kilogram and numbers of daily injections and blood glucose checks, were also collected during the initial interview and every 6 months throughout follow-up by mailed questionnaire.
Glycosylated hemoglobin testing.
Blood samples for determination of total glycosylated hemoglobin levels were collected routinely throughout follow-up. Participants were mailed kits every 4 months to take to their physician's office or clinic for sample collection. Anticoagulated whole blood samples were hand-delivered or mailed to a central laboratory and were analyzed for total glycosylated hemoglobin within 7 days. Details on the assay and the rationale for its use in this study were published previously (10
, 11
). Nondiabetic pediatric and young adult subjects had a mean glycosylated hemoglobin concentration of 5.5 percent (standard deviation, 0.77). To more readily make comparisons, we calculated a DCCT equivalent hemoglobin A1c value from glycosylated hemoglobin values, following split-sample testing (n = 154) for total glycosylated hemoglobin (GHb) at the central laboratory and for hemoglobin A1c at the core DCCT laboratory (5
), using the following regression equation: hemoglobin A1c = 0.786 + 0.797(GHb) 0.006(GHb2).
Fundus photographs.
During their fourth, seventh, ninth, and/or 14th year of diabetes duration, participants were invited to one of three regional clinic sites for an examination. Anthropometric data collection included height, weight, and waist and hip circumference measurements. Blood pressures were measured with a random-zero sphygmomanometer according to the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program protocol (12
). Eyes were dilated and color stereoscopic 30° fundus photographs of seven standard fields were taken. Retinopathy status was determined using a severity scale developed for the WESDR (2
). The scale classifies people as having no, minimal, mild, moderate, or severe nonproliferative retinopathy, as well as treated (panretinal photocoagulation) or proliferative retinopathy, on an 11-step scale ranging from both eyes' having no retinopathy (10/10) to both eyes' having treated or proliferative retinopathy (60+/60+). Detailed protocols have been described previously (13
).
Statistical methods
Analyses were performed using the SAS statistical package (14
). Mean values, standard deviations, and percentages were used to characterize the sample and to compare persons with and without retinopathy. Tests of significance were two-sided. The prevalence of retinopathy was estimated at each duration time point, with and without weighting by the inverse of the probability of participation in the corresponding examination (15
17
). This probability (of participation in each examination) was modeled on the basis of 522 of 597 cohort members who provided baseline characteristics and glycosylated hemoglobin measures in the first 3 years of diabetes duration. The probability was obtained by logistic regression of participation status on age at diagnosis, occupation-based socioeconomic score and mother's years of education at baseline, sex, race, and mean glycosylated hemoglobin level in the first 3 years.
The prevalence of retinopathy observed at the WESDR baseline examination in 19791980 was compared by age-and-duration group with the prevalence observed in the current study. Duration was grouped in the two studies as follows: 37 years' duration (7- or 4-year examination), 811 years' duration (9-year examination), and 1215 years' duration (14-year examination).
Data on glycosylated hemoglobin level, daily insulin dose, and number of blood glucose checks per day were summarized for each subject, and examination time was calculated as the cumulative mean from the start of the study to the respective examination. Mean values were also calculated starting from 1 year preceding each examination to evaluate effects closer to the examination times and during the first 2 years of diabetes to evaluate the effects of early glycemic control. The cumulative proportion of follow-up time spent using three or more daily insulin injections or using an insulin pump was similarly summarized for each subject.
The risk of being found to have retinopathy for the first time at a given examination was modeled on demographic and diabetes-care characteristics by regression analysis with the complementary log-log link for interval-censored data (18
, 19
). This approach includes indicator variables for the examination time points (4, 7, 9, or 14 years) as covariates. The risk sets were formed from the initial data set by removing prevalent cases following the first finding of retinopathy; the sets included 420 subjects at the 4-year examination, 261 subjects at the 7-year examination, 245 subjects at the 9-year examination, and 41 subjects at the 14-year examination.
A basic model included the examination time-point indicator variables, age at examination, and sex and race as predictors. Model-building proceeded by evaluating the strength of the association between variously summarized measures of glycosylated hemoglobin over time and risk of retinopathy, followed by stepwise inclusion of the following variables in the model, keeping those that were significant (p
0.05) at each step: occupation-based socioeconomic score, mother's education, daily blood glucose checking, daily insulin injections, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2), waist:hip ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and current cigarette smoking status. On the basis of graphical evidence, age at examination was modeled by a piecewise linear approach to capture the nonlinear relation between age and risk of retinopathy. Terms for interaction between each significant variable and the time-point indicator variables representing diabetes duration were also tested in a stepwise fashion. A second model for comparison was formed by including blood glucose checking and number of insulin injections per day in the basic model without mean glycosylated hemoglobin.
The impact of compliance with glycosylated hemoglobin kit returns on the risk of retinopathy in the final model was investigated using a pattern-mixture model approach (20
, 21
). A summary measure of glycosylated hemoglobin kit compliance, formed by calculating the fraction of a participant's kit returns out of the expected number of returns up to each examination time point, was checked for significance and for possible modification of the effect of mean glycosylated hemoglobin level.
| RESULTS |
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Study population and diabetes management history
The 474 participants providing fundus photographs were representative of the entire cohort; sex (51 percent male), race (95 percent White), mother's education (14 years) and parents' occupational level (45) at study enrollment, age at diagnosis (11 years; range, 7 months30 years), and mean glycosylated hemoglobin level in the first 3 years (10.3 percent) were very similar to those of the enrolled cohort, with slightly more people who were White and younger at diagnosis participating in the examinations (data not shown). These characteristics were included as predictors in determining the probability of participation for evaluations of the effect of participation on retinopathy prevalence.
In the first 4 years, the average proportion of time spent using three or more insulin injections per day was 37 percent and the average proportion of time spent using three or more blood glucose checks per day was 68 percent, with only one person using an insulin pump. In the year preceding the 9-year examination, these proportions were 72 percent and 70 percent, respectively. By 9 years, there were 28 persons (10 percent) using a pump.
Prevalence and severity of retinopathy
Minimal, mild, or moderatesevere nonproliferative retinopathy was identified in 202 subjects (43 percent) throughout follow-up. One person was treated with panretinal photocoagulation during the seventh year. The prevalence and severity of retinopathy at each examination are presented in table 1. The prevalence of retinopathy increased with duration, from 6 percent in the fourth year to 73 percent in the 14th year. The prevalence determined after weighting by the inverse of the probability of participation in the examinations was very similar (13 percent) to the unadjusted prevalence (data not shown). The majority of participants showed minimal retinopathy. Only 2 percent of participants during the ninth year and 10 percent during the 14th year had evidence of moderate or severe nonproliferative retinopathy. Once identified, retinopathy was observed for 79 percent of participants during subsequent follow-up.
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Direct comparison with the prevalence of retinopathy observed at the WESDR baseline examination showed retinopathy prevalence to increase by duration across all ages and to be highest among adults (
20 years of age) in both studies (figure 1). In the current study, the prevalence of retinopathy was consistently lower at all ages in the duration groups 37 years and 811 years. Smaller numbers in the duration group 1215 years in both studies resulted in larger confidence intervals, but a tendency toward lower prevalence of retinopathy in the current study persisted. Among persons aged 1540 years, prevalence in the current study was lower than in the WESDR by 1340 percent in the first two duration groups (data not shown).
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Risk of retinopathy
A cross-sectional comparison of characteristics between persons with (prevalent) retinopathy and persons without (prevalent) retinopathy at each examination is also presented in table 1. Persons with retinopathy were similar to those without retinopathy with respect to sex and race but were older at diagnosis, were older at the time of the examination, had a higher mean glycosylated hemoglobin (or hemoglobin A1c) concentration, and had a history of less frequent mean daily blood glucose checking at each examination. Mean glycosylated hemoglobin level calculated from the beginning of the study to the examination had a stronger relation with retinopathy risk than glycosylated hemoglobin level determined close to the duration interval or during the first few years of diabetes only (data not shown). The proportions of time spent using three or more insulin injections per day did not differ significantly in persons with retinopathy and persons without retinopathy at the 4- and 7-year examinations but did differ for the longer durations. Occupational level at study enrollment tended to be lower in persons who developed retinopathy, but this was not statistically significant at all durations. Blood pressure and body mass index tended to be higher in persons with retinopathy but not statistically significantly so at all durations.
Multivariable complementary log-log regression analyses showed that the risk of developing retinopathy increased greatly with duration. In the final model, with adjustment for age at examination, glycemic control, sex, and race and in comparison with the 4-year examination, hazard ratios were 4.1 at the 9-year examination and 7.9 at the 14-year examination (table 2). Glycosylated hemoglobin was also strongly related to the risk of retinopathy, and the association was stronger at longer durations. For a 1 percent increase in mean glycosylated hemoglobin level, at 4 years, the hazard of retinopathy increased by 14 percent, and at 7 and 9 years, the hazards increased by 44 percent and 42 percent, respectively. Age was also significantly related to the development of retinopathy in multivariable analysis. For every 1-year increase in age up to age 20 years, the hazard of retinopathy increased by 20 percent (hazard ratio = 1.2, 95 percent confidence interval: 1.1, 1.3). After age 20, however, the hazard associated with age showed no further increase (hazard ratio = 1.0, 95 percent confidence interval: 1.0, 1.0).
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In evaluating the relation between retinopathy and diabetes care, with adjustment for age, sex, race, and duration, an increase of one blood glucose check per day was associated with a decreased risk of retinopathy (hazard ratio = 0.9, 95 percent confidence interval: 0.7, 1.0). However, blood glucose checking was no longer significantly related once glycosylated hemoglobin was introduced into the model. Insulin use, evaluated as the proportion of time spent using three or more daily insulin injections and as daily insulin dose, was not related to risk of retinopathy in univariate or multivariable models. Socioeconomic indicators had no impact in the multivariable model after adjustment for the other factors described. There was also no relation between the development of retinopathy and blood pressure, body mass index, cigarette smoking, or year of study enrollment. An interaction between mean cumulative glycosylated hemoglobin and kit compliance in the pattern-mixture model analysis suggested that the relation between glycosylated hemoglobin and retinopathy risk may have been slightly underestimated in the final model.
| DISCUSSION |
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The Wisconsin Diabetes Registry Study is unique in providing contemporary longitudinal data from a population-based incident type 1 diabetes cohort of children, adolescents, and young adults in the United States. In this cohort, followed through the first 414 years of diabetes duration, we observed a much lower prevalence of retinopathy than expected. The population-based WESDR, which recruited persons with diabetes of up to 30 or more years' duration in 19791980, reported prevalences of 74 percent at 910 years' duration and 95 percent at 1314 years' duration among persons with type 1 diabetes (2
The lower prevalence observed in our cohort may be a result of changes in diabetes care since 1980. Our cohort was followed before and after the release of findings from the DCCT that intensive diabetes management could prevent or delay complications (5
). Indeed, we observed an increase in the use of three or more daily insulin injections, daily blood glucose monitoring, and pump use during follow-up. In the WESDR, nearly all persons with type 1 diabetes used one or two insulin injections per day, only 12 percent monitored their blood glucose level three or more times per day, and the mean DCCT equivalent hemoglobin A1c concentration was 10.1 percent at baseline (22
). In our study, as early as 4 years' duration, people were more likely to be using three or more insulin injections and blood glucose checks per day (45 percent and 66 percent, respectively), and the mean hemoglobin A1c concentration was 9.0 percent. The prevalence of retinopathy that exists today may thus be overestimated by relying on the prevalence in previous reports (23
, 24
), especially for younger persons, given the apparent improvements in diabetes management and glycemic control.
Recent population-based studies carried out in Sweden and Finland also showed a lower prevalence of retinopathy than did previous reports (6
, 25
, 26
). Falck et al. (25
) reported a prevalence of 59 percent at 912 years' duration in Finland, and Kernell et al. (26
) reported a prevalence of 32 percent at 1012 years' duration in Sweden; these prevalences are similar to our 47 percent at 910 years. Diabetes treatment was not discussed in detail in these reports; however, intensive diabetes control may have been better achieved in these populations. In the most recent population-based report, also from Sweden, "intensive diabetes management with multiple insulin injections and home glucose monitoring" (6, p. 352) was routine practice during the study period. In that study, Henricsson et al. (6
) found 37 percent of persons with type 1 diabetes to have retinopathy after 810 years' duration. Although it is difficult to compare levels of glycosylated hemoglobin between that report and our study because of differing methods (27
), it appears that glycemia was lower among people in the latter Swedish study (e.g., an approximate mean DCCT equivalent hemoglobin A1c concentration of 7.58.0 percent as compared with our 9 percent at 9 years' duration). Therefore, more intensive treatment leading to lower glycosylated hemoglobin levels could account for the lower prevalence reported in Sweden.
We also observed less severe retinopathy than expected, with a very low prevalence of moderatesevere nonproliferative retinopathy (10 percent) and only one person with treated or proliferative retinopathy by 14 years' duration. In contrast, at the baseline evaluation in WESDR, moderatesevere nonproliferative retinopathy was found in 35 percent of persons and proliferative retinopathy in 25 percent of persons at 1314 years' duration. By age, moderatesevere nonproliferative retinopathy was found in 21 percent of persons aged 2029 years and proliferative retinopathy in 20 percent of persons aged 2029 years (2
). Again, the more recent population-based studies in Sweden and Finland reported lower levels of advanced nonproliferative or preproliferative retinopathy, ranging from approximately 2 percent to 5 percent (6
, 25
, 26
). Moderate-to-severe forms of retinopathy could be more sensitive to improvements in diabetes management and glycemic control, because nearly all people with diabetes may eventually develop minor changes in the microvasculature of the eye (e.g., retinal microaneurysms) (28
). Slowed progression with more intensive therapy (29
) could magnify an innate slowing of the process of retinopathy progression that may occur after 1015 years' duration (30
). In recent articles on persons with longer durations of diabetes, Klein et al. (30
) and Hovind et al. (31
) also reported a decrease in the rate of progression to or incidence of proliferative retinopathy, citing improved diabetes treatment.
We noted in multivariable analyses that longer duration, higher glycosylated hemoglobin level, and older age continue to be the most important factors in the development of retinopathy among younger persons during early diabetes. This is consistent with some previous reports citing age and duration as both being important and independent factors in the development of retinopathy (2
, 3
, 32
). Our findings of a low prevalence of retinopathy among children less than 10 years of age were also consistent with previous reports in children (3
, 13
, 25
, 26
). The prevalence data suggested possible modification of the duration effect by age; however, in the multivariable analysis, the increasing risk associated with duration was not modified by age. The risk of retinopathy did flatten after 20 years of age. This may represent physiologic or behavioral changes occurring after this age.
The increase in retinopathy risk associated with higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels after 7 or more years was stronger than the increase associated with higher glycosylated hemoglobin levels at durations up to 4 years. This agrees with reports that cumulative glycemic exposure is important for the development of retinopathy (5
, 13
). Other factors, such as blood pressure, may contribute to the development or progression of retinopathy at later durations as well (2
). In Denmark, improved management of blood pressure, in addition to better glycemic control, was credited with contributing to a decreased incidence of severe retinopathy after 20 or more years of diabetes (31
).
This study was limited by the fact that we did not have fundus photographs for all eligible persons. Sensitivity analyses indicated that this had only a marginal influence on the estimated prevalence of retinopathy (13 percent) and that the association of retinopathy with glycemic control may have been underestimated. Nevertheless, it remains possible that unmeasured factors could have affected both participation and retinopathy status.
In summary, we observed a lower prevalence of retinopathy and less severe retinopathy in an incident cohort of children, adolescents, and young adults than we anticipated from an earlier population-based study carried out in the same region of Wisconsin (23
). The fortuitous historical control, combined with similar recent reports from Europe, lends support to the conclusion that the prevalence and severity of retinopathy in type 1 diabetes have decreased notably. This has occurred in association with an increase in the intensity of diabetes management, which we have extensively documented in our population. We observed this decrease among persons receiving care across a continuum of providers and services. This speaks to the widespread dissemination and effectiveness of intensive diabetes management, the efficacy of which was demonstrated in the DCCT. The observed decreased prevalence of diabetic retinopathy has important implications for this serious microvascular complication. It emphasizes the usefulness of continuing observational studies of the natural history of type 1 diabetes as management of this difficult illness continues to improve.
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
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This research was supported by National Institutes of Health grant DK36904.
The authors gratefully acknowledge the efforts of all those involved in the Wisconsin Diabetes Registry Study. The authors thank the Wisconsin Fundus Photograph Reading Center (Madison, Wisconsin) and Dr. Dennis Han and the staff of the Eye Institute (Milwaukee, Wisconsin).
Conflict of interest: none declared.
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