American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on August 2, 2005
American Journal of Epidemiology 2005 162(6):604-605; doi:10.1093/aje/kwi239
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
American Journal of Epidemiology Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR |
RE: "A CHAIN MULTINOMIAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE REAL-TIME FATALITY RATE OF A DISEASE, WITH AN APPLICATION TO SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME"
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China
| The first 10% of the full text of this article appears below. |
In a recent article (1
), we and our colleagues proposed a method of estimating a fatality rate in real time based on a chain multinomial model. We demonstrated that the proposed estimator is more sensitive than that of the World Health Organization. We proposed a kernel smoothing method that we applied to the crude estimator of the daily death and recovery probabilities, p1t and p2t, under the chain multinomial model. However, the kernel