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American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on August 2, 2005
American Journal of Epidemiology 2005 162(6):604-605; doi:10.1093/aje/kwi239
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American Journal of Epidemiology Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

RE: "A CHAIN MULTINOMIAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE REAL-TIME FATALITY RATE OF A DISEASE, WITH AN APPLICATION TO SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME"

Eric H. Y. Lau and Paul S. F. Yip

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China

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In a recent article (1Go), we and our colleagues proposed a method of estimating a fatality rate in real time based on a chain multinomial model. We demonstrated that the proposed estimator is more sensitive than that of the World Health Organization. We proposed a kernel smoothing method that we applied to the crude estimator of the daily death and recovery probabilities, p1t and p2t, under the chain multinomial model. However, the kernel . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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