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Am J Epidemiol 2003; 157:1071-1073.
Copyright © 2003 by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Response to Dr. Smith: Timescale-dependent Mortality Effects of Air Pollution

Francesca Dominici1 , Aidan McDermott1, Scott L. Zeger1 and Jonathan M. Samet2

1 Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
2 Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.

Received for publication January 2, 2003; accepted for publication February 5, 2003.

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.


   INTRODUCTION
 
Time-series studies have indicated that there is an association between day-to-day variation in ambient air pollution concentrations and day-to-day variation in numbers of deaths, after data are controlled for more slowly varying confounding factors such as weather, seasonality, and long-term trends. However, the estimated coefficients in the time-series studies are uninformative as to the amount of life lost due to pollution exposure, particularly within susceptible populations (1).

If individuals who were severely ill and were expected to die shortly were the only people affected by current levels of air pollution, reducing ambient concentrations would not necessarily increase life expectancy significantly. This phenomenon of only brief advancement of the timing of death has been referred to as "short-term mortality displacement," as well as by the unfortunate term "short-term harvesting." While no lives should be shortened by air pollution, society suffers a much smaller loss if air pollution affects only . . . [Full Text of this Article]


   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 

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