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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 93, No. 6: 413-424
Copyright © 1971 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

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HISTORIC TRENDS IN DEATHS FROM CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE IN THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN

HOLGER HANSEN and MERVYN SUSSER1,

1Division of Epidemiology, Columbia University 600 West 168th Street, New York, N.Y. 10032.

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Hansen, H. and M. Susser (Columbia Univ. School of Public Health and Administrative Medicine, New York, N.Y. 10032). Historic trends in deaths from chronic kidney disease in the United States and Britain. Amer J Epidem 93: 413–424, 1971.—Mortality trends from chronic kidney disease have been used to project needs for renal dialysis, but there has been controversy about whether mortality was rising or falling. Periodic and cohort analyses have therefore been made of historic trends in the available national mortality statistics for chronic diseases of the kidney in the United States and Britain. These analyses point to a true decline in mortality from chronic kidney disease. The pattern is consistent with a generation effect in which mortality increased for successive generations born up to 1850, and declined thereafter. In the nineteenth century the trend in chronic nephritis mortality for successive birth cohorts was parallel with the trend of scarlet fever mortality at the time of their birth, a result consistent with a common source of deaths from both conditions in childhood streptococcal infection. The decline in mortality from chronic diseases of the kidney over the past three decades has been accelerated by a current or periodic effect. In recent years, only age-groups 75 years and over in England and Wales have shown a rise in total mortality from chronic kidney disease. This rise in rates is more likely to be a residue from the experience of past generations than a signal of a new upward trend.

epidemiology; mortality; nephritis; scarlet fever


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