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American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on August 28, 2007
American Journal of Epidemiology 2007 166(8):880-888; doi:10.1093/aje/kwm222
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American Journal of Epidemiology © The Author 2007. Published by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org.

ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality in the United States: Did the Risks Change from 1987 to 2000?

Francesca Dominici1, Roger D. Peng1, Scott L. Zeger1, Ronald H. White2 and Jonathan M. Samet2

1 Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
2 Department of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Correspondence to Dr. Francesca Dominici, Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205 (e-mail: fdominic{at}jhsph.edu).

Received for publication September 7, 2006. Accepted for publication January 19, 2007.

Evaluation of the public health impact of air quality regulations, referred to as accountability research, is increasingly viewed as a necessary component of responsible governmental policy interventions. The authors present an example of accountability assessment based on evaluating change in the short-term effect of airborne particles over a period of increasingly stringent regulation that might have changed the chemical composition and toxicity of these particles. They used updated data and methods of the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study to estimate national average relative rates of the effects of particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and on other-cause mortality for 1987–2000. They estimated national average relative rates of the effects of particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter on all-cause mortality for 1999–2000. The authors found strong evidence that lag 1 exposures to particulate matter ≤10 µm and ≤2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter continue to be associated with increased mortality. They also found a weak indication that the lag 1 effects of particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter on mortality declined during 1987–2000 and that this decline occurred mostly in the eastern United States. The methodology presented can be used to track the health effects of air pollution routinely on regional and national scales.

mortality; particulate matter; population surveillance; public policy; sentinel surveillance

Abbreviations: NMMAPS, National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study; PM2.5, particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM10, particulate matter ≤10 µm in aerodynamic diameter

Editor's note: An invited commentary on this article appears on page 889, and the authors' response is on page 892.


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Related articles in Am. J. Epidemiol.:

Invited Commentary: Heterogeneity of Particulate Matter Health Risks
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Am. J. Epidemiol. 2007 166: 889-891. [Abstract] [FREE Full Text]  

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Am. J. Epidemiol. 2007 166: 892-893. [Extract] [FREE Full Text]  



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