American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on August 17, 2005
American Journal of Epidemiology 2005 162(7):686-693; doi:10.1093/aje/kwi257
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PRACTICE OF EPIDEMIOLOGY |
Identifying Pediatric Age Groups for Influenza Vaccination Using a Real-Time Regional Surveillance System
1 Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, MA
2 Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Children's Hospital Boston, Boston, MA
3 Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA
4 Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates, Boston, MA
5 Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology, Cambridge, MA
Correspondence to Dr. John S. Brownstein, Division of Emergency Medicine, Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard Medical School, 1 Autumn Street, Room 542, Boston, MA 02215 (e-mail: john_brownstein{at}harvard.edu).
Evidence is accumulating that universal vaccination of schoolchildren would reduce the transmission of influenza. The authors sought to identify target age groups within the pediatric population that develop influenza the earliest and are most strongly linked with mortality in the population. Patient visits for respiratory illness were monitored, using real-time syndromic surveillance systems, in six Massachusetts health-care settings, including ambulatory care sites and emergency departments at tertiary-care and community hospitals. Visits from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2004, were segmented into age group subpopulations. Timeliness and prediction of each subpopulation were measured against pneumonia and influenza mortality in New England with time-series analyses and regression models. Study results show that patient age significantly influences timeliness (p = 0.026), with pediatric age groups arriving first (p < 0.001); children aged 3–4 years are consistently the earliest (p = 0.0058). Age also influences the degree of prediction of mortality (p = 0.036), with illness among children under age 5 years, compared with all other patients, most strongly associated with mortality (p < 0.001). Study findings add to a growing body of support for a strategy to vaccinate children older than the currently targeted age of 6–23 months and specifically suggest that there may be value in vaccinating preschool-age children.
disease transmission; Fourier analysis; influenza; influenza vaccines; mass immunization; population surveillance; sentinel surveillance; vaccination
Abbreviations: ANOVA, analysis of variance; CI, confidence interval; SD, standard deviation
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