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American Journal of Epidemiology Advance Access originally published online on October 19, 2005
American Journal of Epidemiology 2005 162(11):1098-1107; doi:10.1093/aje/kwi320
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American Journal of Epidemiology Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health All rights reserved; printed in U.S.A.

Original Contribution

Early Predictors of Adult Drinking: A Birth Cohort Study

Rosa Alati1,2, Jake M. Najman1,2,3, Stuart A. Kinner2, Abdullah A. Mamun1, Gail M. Williams1, Michael O'Callaghan4,5 and William Bor4,5

1 Longitudinal Study Unit, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
2 Queensland Alcohol and Drug Research and Education Centre (QADREC), School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
3 School of Social Science, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
4 School of Medicine, University of Queensland, Queensland, Australia
5 Mater Misericordiae Hospital, South Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Correspondence to Dr. Rosa Alati, 1st Floor, Public Health Building, Medical School, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, Queensland 4072, Australia (e-mail: r.alati{at}sph.uq.edu.au).

Few studies have explored early predictors of problem drinking in youth, and fewer still have simultaneously considered the role of biologic, familial, and intrapersonal factors. The present study explored early life course and later life course predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence in young adulthood. Data were taken from a cohort of 2,551 mothers and their children recruited as part of the longitudinal Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes (MUSP) carried out in Brisbane, Australia, from 1981 to 1984. Data were collected prenatally and then postnatally at 6 months and at 5, 14, and 21 years. A range of biologic, familial, and intrapersonal factors was considered. A series of logistic regression models with inverse probability weighting was used to explore pathways to problem drinking from adolescence to early adulthood. For males and females, no association was found between either birth factors or childhood factors and a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol disorders at age 21 years. Externalizing symptoms and maternal factors at age 14 years were significantly associated with alcohol problems. For youth aged 14 years, maternal moderate alcohol consumption accounted for the highest percentage of attributable risk among those exposed. Results show that exposure to maternal drinking in adolescence is a strong risk factor for the development of alcohol problems in early adulthood.

adolescent; alcohol drinking; cohort studies; mothers; risk factors


Abbreviations: CIDI-Auto, Composite International Diagnostic Interview–computerized version; DSM-IV, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition; MUSP, Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes


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