American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol 152, Issue 5 397-406, Copyright © 2000 by Oxford University Press
MJ Daniels, F Dominici, JM Samet and SL Zeger
Numerous studies have shown a positive association between daily mortality
and particulate air pollution, even at concentrations below regulatory
limits. These findings have motivated interest in the shape of the
exposure-response relation. The authors have developed flexible modeling
strategies for time-series data that include spline and threshold
exposure-response models; they apply these models to daily time-series data
for the 20 largest US cities for 1987-1994, using the concentration of
particulate matter <10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) as the
exposure measure. The spline model showed a linear relation without
indication of threshold for PM10 and relative risk of death for all causes
and cardiorespiratory causes; by contrast, for other causes, the risk did
not increase until approximately 50 microg/m3 PM10. For all-cause
mortality, a linear model without threshold was preferred to the threshold
model and to the spline model, using the Akaike information criterion
(AIC). The findings were similar for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths
combined. By contrast, for causes other than cardiovascular and
respiratory, a threshold model was more competitive with a threshold value
estimated at 65 microg/m3. These findings indicate that linear models
without a threshold are appropriate for assessing the effect of particulate
air pollution on daily mortality even at current levels.
ARTICLES
Estimating particulate matter-mortality dose-response curves and threshold levels: an analysis of daily time-series for the 20 largest US cities
Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, USA.
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