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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 147, No. 6: 597-604
Copyright © 1998 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

A Stastical Model to Identify the contaminated Lots Implicated in Latrogenic Transmision of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease among French Human Growth Hoermone Receipents

Jérome Huillards d'Alignaux1,, Annick Alpérovitch1 and Jean Maccario2

1Unité de Recherches Epidémiologiques en Neurologie et Psychopatholgoie, INSERM U360 Paris, France
2Unité de Recherches en Epidemiolgiques, INSERM U169 Villejuif, France

Reprint requests to Dr.J.Hullard d'Aignaux, INSERM U2360, Hospital de la Pitié-Salpetritère, 75651 Paris Cedex 13, France

From 1970 to 1988, thousands of children have been treated with human growth hormone (hGH) to supply pituitary gland deficiency. In France, 51 of the 968 children treated by hGH lots produced between January 1984 and March 1985 had developed Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) by the end of 1996. The authors' objective was to investigate which of the 13 hGH lots produced during this period might be implicated in the iatrogenic transmission of CJD. In this paper, the authors describe a model tht was developed to compute the probability for each lot of being contaminated. The validity of the model was assessed by a simulation study that showed a good agreement between the estimated and the simulated number of contaminated lots. The model suggested that about half of the lots distributed during this period might have been contaminated by the infectious agent that causes CJD. The risk of iatrogenic CJD for patients exposed to contaminated hGHlots was estimated to be 0.06 (95% confidence interval 0.05–0.07).

Bayes theorem; Creutzfeldt-Jakob syndrome; hormones; iatrogenic disease; models; statistical


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