American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 142, No. 9: 946-954
Copyright © 1995 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
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Tracking of Blood Pressure over a 40-Year Period in the University of Manitoba Follow-up Study, 1948–1988
1Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
2Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
Reprint requests to Robert B. Tate, University of Manitoba Follow-up Study, 148–770 Bannatyne Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3E 0W3.
High blood pressure is a well-recognized, modifiable, cardiovascular disease risk factor. Tracking of blood pressure was examined in the University of Manitoba Follow-up Study, a cohort of 3,983 men followed over a 40-year period, between 1948 and 1988. Blood pressure measurements recorded over time in these men, prior to the development of ischemic heart disease, were used in this analysis. Two approaches to tracking were used; correlation analysis and the quantification of the likelihood for a man whose blood pressure was in either the top or bottom quintile to remain in the extreme end of the distribution at later measurement. For ages 25–75 years and for intervals between blood pressure measurement ranging from 5 to 35 years, significant evidence for tracking was found. The strongest evidence for tracking was in middle age, 45–55 years. Strength of tracking decreased with increasing time between measurements. This analysis suggests that men at highest risk for hypertension can be identified at a young age. Hence, strategies for prevention of cardiovascular complications can be targeted in early adulthood.
adult; blood pressure; longitudinal studies; men
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