American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 142, No. 6: 636-642
Copyright © 1995 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
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Evalution of Secular Trends in CD4+ Lymphocyte Loss among Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)-infected Men with Known Dates of Seroconversion
1Epidemiology and Biostatistics Program, National Cancer Institute, Public Health Service, US Department of Health and Human Services Rockville, MD.
2Department of Epidemiology, The Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health Baltimore, MD.
3Department of Biostatistics, The Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health Baltimore, MD.
4School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, CA
5Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA
6Northwestern University Medical School Chicago, IL
Reprint requests to Dr. Thomas R. O'Brien, Viral Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, Executive Plaza North Building, Room 434, 6130 Executive Blvd., Rockville, MD 20852.
The rate at which immunodeficiency develops in untreated human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)- infected persons might be increasing or decreasing over time because of viral evolution or other factors. Beginning in 1984, Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study investigators recruited HIV-1-seronegathve homosexual/ bisexual men from four US metropolitan areas and examined them semiannually for HIV-1 seroconversion. To assess possible secular changes in the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the authors examined CD4+ lymphocyte data from 354 men who seroconverted between 1984 and 1991. To control for measurement differences among centers and over time, the authors adjusted CD4+ lymphocyte values to those of persistently seronegative participants. CD4+ lymphocyte percentage measurements at the first seropositive visit formed a U-shaped pattern, with the lowest values observed in 1988 and 1989. The authors observed no consistent secular pattern of CD4+ percentages at later visit dates, except that mean CD4+ percentages were consistently lowest in men who seroconverted in 1988. In a proportional hazards model, the time to the adjusted CD4+ lymphocyte count of <500 cells/mm3 was not associated with the secular time of seroconversion (relative hazard = 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.971.13). The authors' data do not suggest a major change in the natural history of HIV-1 infection in this population. Am J Epidemiol 1995;142:63642.
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; HIV seropositivity; HIV-1; T4 lymphocytes
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