American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 135, No. 10: 1166-1177
Copyright © 1992 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
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Serial Changes in Blood Pressure from Adolescence into Adulthood
1Channing Laboratory, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston, MA
2Division of Human Biology, Department of Community Health, Wright State University Yellow Springs, OH
3Division of Human Biology, Department of Community Health, and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Wright State University Yellow Springs, OH
Reprint requests to Dr Laurel A Beckett, Center for Research on Health and Aging, Rush-Presbytenan-St. Luke's Medical Center, 1653 West Congress Parkway, Chicago, IL 60612
High blood pressure is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease outcomes in adulthood. Furthermore, numerous longitudinal studies of blood pressure in childhood with length of follow-up from 1 to 17 years indicate that blood pressure levels track over the short term. This study addresses the question of the predictive value of childhood blood pressure readings for adult levels, using repeated blood pressure determinations from a sample of 501 participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study, and ongoing cohort study in southwestern Ohio that began in 1929. A damped autoregressive model indicated tracking correlations from 0.39 (4-year intervals) to 0.24 (20 years) for systolic pressure and 0.37 (4 years) to 0.20 (20 years) for diastolic pressure. These results indicate that tracking of blood pressure persists from age 13 years to age 40 years, which translates into moderate levels of relative risk for adult hypertension (diastolic pressure above 90 mmHg) for adolescents with high normal blood pressure. The estimated relative risks of hypertension at age 35 for white 15-years-olds with a true mean diastolic pressure of 80 mmHg were 1.9 for males and 2.6 for females, relative to 15-year-olds with a true diastolic pressure of 60 mmHg. Am J Epidemiol 1992: 135: 1166–77
biometry; blood pressure; epidemiologic methods; hypertension
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