American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 132, No. 4: 685-700
Copyright © 1990 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
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LONGITUDINAL AND CROSS-SECTIONAL ESTIMATES OF PULMONARY FUNCTION DECLINE IN NEVER-SMOKING ADULTS
1Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health Boston, MA
2Department of Environmental Science and Physiology, Harvard School of Public Health Boston, MA
3The Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Womens Hospital, Harvard Medical School Boston, MA
4Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota School of Public Health Minneapolis, MN
Reprint requests to Dr. Douglas W. Dockery, Department of Environmental Science and Physiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 655 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115.
This paper describes methods for simultaneous cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements obtained in cohort studies with regular examination schedules, then uses these methods to describe age-related changes in pulmonary function level among nonsmoking participants in the Six Cities Study, a longitudinal study of air pollution and respiratory health conducted between 1974 and 1983 in Watertown, Massachusetts; Kingston and Harriman, Tennessee; St. Louis, Missouri; Steubenville, Ohio; Portage, Wisconsin; and Topeka, Kansas. The subjects, initially aged 25–74, were examined on three occasions at 3-year intervals. Individual rates of loss increased more rapidly with age than predicted from the cross-sectional model. For example, for a male of height 1.75 m, the cross-sectional model predicted an increase in the annual rate of loss of FEV1 from 23.7 ml/yr at age 25 to 39.0 ml/yr at age 75, while the longitudinal model gave rates of loss increasing from 12.9 ml/yr at age 25 to 58.2 ml/yr at age 75. These results contrast with those of other studies comparing longitudinal and cross-sectional estimates of pulmonary function loss.
cross-sectional studies; longitudinal studies; lung; models; statistical; respiratory function tests; spirometry
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