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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 131, No. 1: 185-194
Copyright © 1990 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

MORTALITY AND AIR POLLUTION J LONDON: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

JOEL SCHWARTZ1, and ALLAN MARCUS2

1Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC
2Batelle Memorial Laboratories Research Triangle Park, NC

Reprint requests to Dr. Joel Schwartz, Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Analysis PM 221, 401 M Street SW, Washington, DC 20460

The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958–1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. in models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.

air pollution; longitudinal studies; mortality


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