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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 130, No. 6: 1167-1175
Copyright © 1989 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health


research-article

PREVALENCE, INCIDENCE, AND PROGRESSION OF HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION IN HOMOSEXUAL AND BISEXUAL MEN IN HEPATITIS B VACCINE TRIALS, 1978–1988

NANCY A. HESSOL1,, ALAN R. LIFSON1, PAUL M. O'MALLEY1, LYNDA S. DOLL2, HAROLD W. JAFFE2 and GEORGE W. RUTHERFORD1

1AIDS Office, Department of Public Health City and County of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
2AIDS Program, Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control, Public Health Service, US Department of Health and Human Services Atlanta, GA

Reprint requests to Nancy A. Hessol, AIDS Office, San Francisco Department of Public Health, 25 Van Ness, Suite 500, San Francisco, CA 94102

Between 1978 and 1980,359 hepatitis B seronegative homosexual and bisexual men were recruited from the San Francisco municipal sexually transmitted disease clinic for hepatitis B vaccine trials. Of the 359 participants, 320 (89%) consented to have their stored blood samples tested for human immunodeficiency virus antibodies. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection in these 320 vaccine trial participants rose from 0.3% in 1978 to 50.9% in 1988. The annual incidence of human immunodeficiency virus infection showed that seroconversion peaked in 1980-1982, dropped significantly in 1983, and has remained low. Men < 30 years old on entry into the study seroconverted earlier in the epidemic and had higher incidence rates than men 30 years or older (p = 0.07). No statistical difference in seroconversion rates was found for other demographic variables. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the cumulative proportion of men without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection, an estimated 39% (95% confidence interval 27%–51%) will develop acquired immunodeficiency syndrome within 9.2 years of infection. Cox proportional hazard stepwise analysis showed no correlation between age at seroconversion, race, or year of seroconversion and progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; homosexuality; HIV


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