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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 130, No. 3: 611-614
Copyright © 1989 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

PROBABILITY OF INTRODUCING DISEASES BECAUSE OF FALSE NEGATIVE TEST RESULTS

NAŚM MARCHEVSKY1, JOE R HELD2, and CASIMIRO GARCIA-CARRILL1

1Pan American Zoonoses Center, Veterinary Public Health Program, Pan American Health Organization Buenos Aires, Argentina.
2Veterinary Public Health Program, Pan AmericanHealth Organization Washington, DC.

Reprint requests to Dr. Joe R Held, PAHO-HPV, 525 23rd Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20037

The use of diagnostic tests for the selection of healthy individual persons or animals for inclusion in certain groups carries with it an inherent risk of including those with infections because they falsely reacted negatively. The factors of sensitivity of the test, prevalence of the disease, and the size of the group all influence the degree of such risk. The probability of including an infected individual person or animal can be calculated combining conditional probabiltty and the binomial distribution.

false negative reactions; infection; probability; risk


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