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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 127, No. 3: 516-531
Copyright © 1988 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

THE ONSET OF DECLINE IN ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE MORTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES

KATHLEEN E. RAGLAND1,, STEVE SELVIN1,2 and DEANE W. MERRILL1,2

1Department of Biomedical and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, CA 94720
2Computer Science Research Department, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, University of California Berkeley, CA

Send reprint requests to Kathleen E. Ragland at this address

Temporal and spatial patterns of the onset of the decline in ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States for each of the 48 contiguous US states and the District of Columbia are examined for the years 1955–1978 for age-sex-race-specific mortality. Mortality rates are derived from National Center for Health Statistics mortality data, and a polynomial interpolation is used to estimate intercensal population counts employing 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 US Census data. A quadratic regression equation is used to estimate the date of highest rate, which marks the beginning of the decline for each of the US states. The temporal distribution of the onset of the decline among men occurred primarily between 1960 and 1965. Among women, the onset of decline was more variable. Furthermore, strong and regular spatial patterns were seen among the groups examined and these impressions are supported by statistical analysis. California, Maryland, and the District of Columbia were early deciiners In most groups studied, whereas states in the southeast were consistently among the last to experience the onset of decline. These patterns suggest the existence of an underlying phenomenon accounting for the spread or diffusion of the onset of decline in ischemic heart disease mortality.

diffusion; ischemic heart disease; mortality


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