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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 123, No. 5: 905-915
Copyright © 1986 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

other

SIMPLE ALGORITHMS FOR THE REPRESENTATION OF DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC VERSIONS OF THE REEDFROST EPIDEMIC MODEL USING A PROGRAMMABLE CALCULATOR

EDUARDO L. F. FRANCO1, and A. RAY SIMONS2

1Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research, Sao Paulo Branch Rua Prof. Antonio Prudente, 109, Sao Paulo, SP 01509, Brazil
2Division of Laboratory Training and Consultation, Centers for Disease Control Atlanta, GA

Reprint requests to Dr. Eduardo L. F. Franco

Two programs are described for the emulation of the dynamics of Reed-Frost progressive epidemics in a handheld programmable calculator (HP-41C series). The programs provide a complete record of cases, susceptibles, and immunes at each epidemic period using either the deterministic formulation or the trough analogue of the mechanical model for the stochastic version. Both programs can compute epidemics that include a constant rate of influx or outflux of susceptibles and single or double infectivity time periods.

epidemiologic methods; disease outbreaks; models, theoretical; probability


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