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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 122, No. 5: 782-788
Copyright © 1985 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

THE RELATIONSHIP OF VARIOUS INDICES OF HEART SIZE ON CHEST X-RAY TO THE 10-YEAR INCIDENCE OF HYPERTENSION

THE NORMATIVE AGING STUDY

DAVID SPARROW1,, CHARLES P. TIFFT2, ELAINE DIBBS1, MANORAMA SAINI1, BERNARD ROSNER3 and SCOTT T. WEISS4

1Normative Aging Study, Veterans Administration Outpatient Clinic Boston, MA 02108
2Evans Department of Clinical Research, Division of Medicine, Boston University Medical Center Boston, MA
3Harvard Medical School and Affiliated Hospitals Center, Inc. Boston, MA
4The Charles H. Dana Research Institute and the Harvard-Thomdike Laboratory of the Beth Israel Hospital and Harvard Medical School Boston, MA.

Reprint request to David Sparrow

A total of 598 males (aged 30–74 years) who had baseline (1961–1970) chest radiography and baseline blood pressure less than 140/90 mmHg were observed prospectively for 10 years. Subjects were participants of the Normative Aging Study, a longitudinal study on aging initiated in 1961 at the Veterans Administration Outpatient Clinic in Boston, Massachusetts. Blood pressures were taken at five-and 10-year follow-up examinations. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that the long diameter of the heart (on posteroantertor film) and the cardiac depth (on lateral film) were statistically significant predictors of subsequent hypertension after controlling for baseline body mass index, systolic pressure, and diastolic pressure. A similar model considering various composite indices of heart size indicated that the heart volume was a statistically significant and independent predictor of hypertension. Thus, increases in heart size may precede and predict the development of sustained hypertension.

blood pressure; hypertension; x-ray film


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