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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 120, No. 4: 531-536
Copyright © 1984 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

research-article

THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF LEGG-PERTHES DISEASE

AN ANALYSIS USING SARTWELL'S INCUBATION PERIOD MODEL1

ANDREW J. HALL and D. J. P. BARKER

Dr. Hall is the recipient of a Wellcome Trust Research Training Fellowship in Clinical Epide miology

Reprint requests to Dr. A. J. Hall

The etiology of Legg-Perthes disease of the hip is unknown. One current hypothesis suggests than an environmental factor affects the growth mechanism at a critical prenatal stage. The time interval between the critical exposure and the onset of clinical disease can be regarded as the incubation period, and the distribution of ages at onset of disease will reflect the distribution of incubation periods. Published series of cases were examined for fit to Sartwell's logarithmic normal model of incubation periods. All fit except two. The study results are consistent with a single cause acting at a critical stage of life, i.e., before two years of age. The findings are compatible with either a prenatal or postnatal influence.

Legg-Perthes disease; models; biological

1From the Medical Research Council Environmental Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton General Hospital, South ampton S09 4XY, United Kingdom


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