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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 119, No. 6: 1015-1023
Copyright © 1984 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

other

ESTIMATING DISEASE RATES FROM A DIAGNOSTIC TEST

TAKASHI YANAGAWA1,2 and BETH C. GLADEN1,

1Statistics and Biomathematics Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Research Triangle Park, NC
2Kyushu University Fukuoka, Japan

Address reprint requests to Dr. Gladen at: Statistics and Biomathematics Branch, MD-B3–02, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.

Yanagawa, T., and B. C. Gladen (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709). Estimating disease rates from a diagnostic test Am J Epidemiol 1984; 119: 1015–23.

Incidence and remission rates are often estimated from studies that employ a diagnostic test to indicate the presence of disease. The apparent rates that result from a simple study design with one test given at two time points will be substantially different from the true rates, even if the error rates of the test are low. Estimation of the true rates requires extra assumptions or extended designs with more tests or more time points. The authors illustrate their points with the use of two examples, the second of which compares the estimates obtained to actual data from a study of onchocerclasis (river blindness) in Guatemala.

biometry; diagnostic tests; onchocerclasis; population surveillance


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