Skip Navigation

This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Right arrow Disclaimer
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by CLARK, V. A.
Right arrow Articles by DUDLEY, J. P.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by CLARK, V. A.
Right arrow Articles by DUDLEY, J. P.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 119, No. 3: 445-455
Copyright © 1984 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

other

APPLICATION OF SIMULATION TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING DURATION OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS DERIVED FROM PREVALENCE-FORMED COHORTS

VIRGINIA A. CLARK1,, BARBARA R. VISSCHER2, ROGER DETELS2, NORA L. VALDIVIEZO2, ROBERTA M. MALMGREN2 and JAN P. DUDLEY2

1Biostatistics Division, UCLA School of Public Health Los Angeles, CA
2Epidemiology Division, UCLA School of Public Health Los Angeles, CA

Reprint requests to: Dr. Virginia A. Clark, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90024.

Clark, V. A. (UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90024), B. R. Visscher, R. Detels, N. L. Valdiviezo, R. M. Malmgren and J. P. Dudley. Application of simulation techniques for estimating duration of multiple sclerosis derived from prevalence-formed cohorts. Am J Epidemiol 1984; 119: 445–55.

Comparisons of the average duration of multiple sclerosis derived from a prevalence survey of cases alive in 1970 in a low-risk area (Los Angeles County, California) and a high-risk area (King and Pierce Counties, Washington) suggest that patients in the high-risk area had a longer duration of disease than patients in the low-risk area. Because this finding was unexpected and because the underlying population of these two areas has been increasing at different rates, two simulation models were developed to estimate the duration of multiple sclerosis from a prevalence survey, taking into account the effects of changes in the population over time. Comparison of the durations derived from the two simulation studies suggested that underestimation of true backward recurrence time from the simulation studies was similar for the two study areas. Thus, the observed differences in duration between the two areas probably reflect the course of disease rather than differences in rate of growth of the two populations. These studies demonstrate the usefulness of simulation studies in estimating disease duration from cohorts derived from prevalence surveys of non-stable populations.

epidemiologic methods; multiple sclerosis; prevalence studies; survival


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?




Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.