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American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 118, No. 4: 573-582
Copyright © 1983 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health

other

ESTIMATION OF RISK DUE TO LOW DOSES OF MICROORGANISMS: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGIES

CHARLES N. HAAS1

1Pritzker Department of Environmental Engineering, Illinois institute of Technology, 3200 South State Street, Chicago, IL 60616 (address for reprint requests)

Haas, C. N. (Illinois institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616). Estimation of risk due to low doses of microorganisms: a comparison of alternative methodologies. Am J Epidemiol 1983; 118: 573–82.

The log-normal, or log-probit, simple exponential and beta distributed effectiveness models were evaluated for their ability to describe experimental dose-response data for human exposure to waterborne bacteria and viruses. Each of the models was capable of describing at least some of the available data; however, the beta-distributed model appeared to be the most widely applicable. When used to extrapolate to extremely low exposure levels, divergent predictions are obtained for each of the three models. On the basis of this analysis, It is impossible to rule out the hypothesis that a single microorganism when ingested has the potential of inducing infection or disease.

bacterial infections; protozoan infections; risk; sanitary engineering; virus diseases; water microbiology; water pollution


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